Consultancy

Feasibility study for a new steel shaping and production factory

Konoz Complex for Steel Shaping & Production

Konoz Complex is a steel bars, tubes, screws and nails factory established in 2019 on a 64,000 square-metre site in the Safola industrial area of Khartoum. Novel Consultancy & Training assessed the capital required to build and operate the complex's three production plants and modelled five years of revenue, profit and cash flow. The study found the project generates a positive NPV, a high internal rate of return, and pays back its investment in roughly two years.

Sector
Industrial manufacturing (steel bars, tubes, screws & nails)
Location
Safola industrial area, Khartoum, Sudan
Established
2019
Total capital required
US$188,241,162
Funding structure
15% owners (US$28,236,174) / 85% loan (US$160,004,988)
First-year revenue
US$152,905,500
First-year net profit
US$31,299,953 (20% net profit margin)
Net present value (NPV, 20% discount rate)
US$274,232,946
Internal rate of return (IRR)
73%
Discounted payback period
approximately two years
Breakeven point
US$181,251,000 sales value / 119,000 units (tons)

Executive summary

Konoz complex factory established in 2019 located at Safola the main industrial area in Khartoum the capital of Sudan. The factory is established on a total area of 64,000 square meters at No.52, Block No.5.

The main products of the factory are Steel Bars, Tubes, Screws and Nails. The market for these products is growing and the gap between supply and demand is wide despite the fact that there are 48 producing facilities in Sudan.

Konoz factory requires for its operation fixed assets amounts to US$79,679,492, and working capital of US$109,375,270 (US$99,350,730 direct cost of production and US$9,210,940 fixed cost of production plus US$813,600 general and administrative costs) i.e. total capital of US$188,241,162.

15% of this capital is to be funded by the owners of the business i.e. US$28,236,174, and 85% i.e. US$160,004,988 to be funded by a loan.

The business is expected to generate revenue of US$152,905,500 in the first year of operation leading to gross profit of US$53,554,770 i.e. gross profit margin of 35% and net profit of US$31,299,953 i.e. Net profit margin of 20% as shown on the proforma income statement below.

This performance generates a return on assets (ROA) of 42% and return on invested capital (ROI) of 17%.

Profits are projected to grow by 25% over a 5 years plan. This projection generates stream of cash flows of US$112,490,666, US$131,924,977, US$169,124,864, US$227,654,877, US$309,306,776 respectively over the five year plan.

The feasibility of the business is measured by the NPV, IRR, and discounted payback period. The discount rate used is 20% to compensate for the risk of the future cash flows. The result of the study is a positive NPV of US$274,232,946, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 73% and a payback period of approximately two years.

A sensitivity analysis of the NPV was conducted using higher discount factors of 25%, 30% and at 35% to accommodate for unforeseen risk in the future and the result is still positive NPV and IRR of 73% (i.e. NPV = 0).

The business will breakeven at a sales mix of US$181,251,000, a sales quantity mix of 119,000 units (tons). The contribution at breakeven point amounts to US$66,764,000.

Board of directors

The Board of Directors of Konoz complex consists of 8 members. The board is led by a Chairman and a Deputy Chairman. The general manager is also a member of the board.

Management team

The general manager oversees the overall administration functions of the three plants of the complex. The GM is assisted by a deputy general manager. Konoz Complex constitutes of three plants, The Bar production plant, the Tube plant and the Screw and Nail plant. For each of the three plants a plant manager is assigned and report directly to the Deputy General Manager.

  • Board of Directors
  • General Manager
  • Deputy General Manager
  • Manager, Screw & Nails Plant
  • Manager, Tube Plant
  • Manager, Steel Bars Plant

Funding structure

  • Finance by owners: 15% of capital requirement, US$28,236,174
  • Finance by loan: 85%, US$160,004,988

Analysis tables

  • Resources needed
  • Fixed assets
  • Direct production costs
  • Fixed costs of production
  • General and administrative costs
  • Sales in quantity
  • Costing & pricing
  • Sales in value
  • Proforma income statement
  • Proforma balance sheet
  • Profit forecast over five years
  • Feasibility indicators
  • Profitability indicators
  • Breakeven analysis
  • Cash flow forecast

Resources needed

ItemAmount
Fixed assets costUS$79,679,492
Direct cost of productionUS$99,350,730
Fixed cost of productionUS$9,210,940
General & administration costsUS$813,600
TOTALUS$188,241,162

Fixed assets summary

Asset categoryTotal value
LandUS$13,000,000
BuildingsUS$22,357,492
MachinesUS$37,185,000
Equipments & toolsUS$2,179,000
Office equipmentsUS$229,000
Furniture & fittingsUS$290,000
VehiclesUS$2,195,000
GeneratorsUS$2,000,000
Water & diesel tanksUS$244,000
TOTAL FIXED ASSETSUS$79,679,492

Profit forecast over five years (values in US$)

DetailsYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Sales152,905,500162,066,618172,064,752183,036,494195,148,949
Less direct costs99,350,730104,318,267109,534,180115,010,889120,761,433
Contribution53,554,77057,748,35162,530,57268,025,60574,387,516
Less fixed costs45,975,55648,274,33450,688,05153,222,45355,883,576
Net profit7,579,2149,474,01711,842,52214,803,15218,503,940

Feasibility indicators (performance analysis)

YearCash flowDiscounted payback (approx. two years)Discount factorNPVIRR
0(US$188,241,162)20%US$274,232,94673%
1US$112,490,666US$93,742,22125%US$213,901,094
2US$131,924,977US$109,937,48130%US$166,419,811
3US$169,124,864US$140,937,38735%US$128,689,466
4US$227,654,877US$189,712,397
5US$309,306,776US$257,755,646

Profitability ratio analysis

RatioValue
Gross profit margin35%
Net profit margin20%
Return on assets42%
Return on investment17%

Breakeven analysis (totals, amounts in US$ 000)

MetricValue (US$ 000)
Sales quantity at breakeven (tons)119
Sales value at breakeven181,251
Direct cost at breakeven114,486
Contribution at breakeven66,764
Total fixed costs66,764

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